Long Term Trend Following is Ridiculously Boring


I wake up everyday and run as fast as I possibly can from one “emergency” to the next. I go-go-go literally nonstop all day, every day. It’s part of my personality to stay really busy. It’s my nature.

What’s funny is that despite my natural tendency to move quick and fast, I choose to trade a strategy that hasn’t made a single transaction since Monday and hasn’t exited a position in almost a month.

I know enough to expect that my strategy will be boring at times, but this is like watching paint dry….which is exactly why I like it.

I am not in this for the excitement. I’m here to prove to myself and anyone else who cares that I can beat the stock market. Making positive returns over a long-term horizon is the only excitement I am looking for.

With that, let’s take a look at how the DTAYS Quantitative Growth Fund performed this week…

Overall Performance

After an up and down week, the QG Fund finished with a value of $100,514.18, which is a positive return of 0.514% on the year.

For comparison purposes, the S&P 500 is up about 5.5% on the year, so the QG Fund actually made up a bit of ground this week and is back to only 5% behind the general market index.

Here is what the individual holdings look like this weekend:


One exciting note was that the new position in FANG is off to a hot start, cruising up 8.05% since entering on Monday morning. This should balance out the tough luck we’ve had with AFSI, which is still hanging on by a thread.

Entries & Exits

As I said, there wasn’t a whole lot to do when it came to managing the QG Fund this week. There were no exits signalled, and there is no room for new entries.

That means we are just hanging out and waiting for our stocks to show weakness and give up exit signals. That might happen this week, or we might keep this holding pattern for the rest of the year. It’s not our job to predict, but to react.

However, it the QG Fund wasn’t full, here is what its scan of the IBD 50 for new 20 week would have produced:


FLT is just a touch below the fund’s ROC requirement, and SN is a bit above the HV filter, so they are both disqualified.

That leaves us with FANG, SWKS, CLR, and EOG as possible entries this weekend. The QG Fund already owns FANG, SWKS, and CLR, so I am taking that as a good sign the we are heading in the right direction.

If there was a spot available in the QG Fund, it would go to EOG this weekend. But there isn’t, so it won’t.

Looking ahead to next week, most of the stocks are a good ways from their 5-ATR stop lines, so we would have to see a pretty major breakdown to trigger an exit, but that isn’t outside the realm of possibility. ¬†We’ll see.

Photo Credit: markhillary via Compfight cc