As of today I have officially thrown in the towel on the baseball fund.
It’s not that I don’t believe in the potential of it either. I really do think there is an edge there. Overall, it is picking 55% winners on the year, despite the fact that it was down quite a bit.
I would love to break down how it would have performed if I scrapped the betting levels and simply made a 1% bet on every single game that indicated a positive advantage. I also believe that over the course of the offseason I could derive some sort of filter that could isolate and avoid a big chunk of the losers.
I also think I could dramatically improve the fund’s performance if I took the time to update every team’s rotations each day and also adjusted for lineup changes. The problem is that running the fund as I have been is taking up over an hour of my time every morning. I just don’t have any more time to spare on a hobby.
The thing about the baseball fund is that no matter how successful it is, there is no endgame where it puts money in my pocket. Even if it returned 50% on the season this year, I would still not be convinced that it could repeat that performance next year.
Also, if I ever wanted to put real money into the fund, I don’t have any realistic way to do so. Betting with local bookies is anything but safe, and my wife isn’t exactly going to jump at the idea of moving to Vegas for the summer. Online sportsbooks are even more shady.
The goal of this site is to document my progress towards financial independence. The strategy that has evolved from that is for me to create income through freelance writing, then rapidly grow that nest egg using Amazon selling, and then invest a larger amount of capital in the QG Fund.
The baseball fund was nothing but a distraction from this goal. Granted, it was a welcomed distraction because I love baseball. But I have come to see the fund as a clever evolution of the Resistance rather than a fun side project.
For that reason, I just can’t continue investing the same level of time in the baseball fund, but I do still believe in its potential. Perhaps it is something that I can pursue down the road, but for now I need to maintain my focus on my primary goal.