The Baseball Fund went 11-1-1 last night. The only games it didn’t win were the Mets getting rained out and my hometown Pirates putting up early runs on Jordan Zimmerman. Nights like these not only serve as a validation that I am on to something here, they are also a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
Despite all of these wins, the fund only made about 2.6% yesterday. This is due, for the most part, to betting mostly on heavy favorites and losing the double bet on the Nationals. (It’s pretty incredible that they weren’t able to muster any more offense against Charlie Morton.)
The fund came into the day up 0.66% on the year, and is now up 3.30%. While that is not a number that is going to knock your socks off, it is still positive, and heading in the right direction.
The Newest Flaw
On the negative side, I discovered a new flaw this morning.
After my issue with the projected wins not including the games that had already been played, I have been concerned that I was going to run into a similar issue with the WARPs for each starting pitcher. I confirmed that this morning when I realized that the innings listed next to the projected WARP simply weren’t enough to represent a whole season.
Luckily, I found that going to each individual pitcher’s player card would allow me to see their WARP for the season to this point, as well as their projected WARP for the rest of the season. I spent my morning combining these two numbers for each team’s five-man rotation.
Moving forward, my plan is to update one division every morning. That will allow me to update the entire league every six days, which means that every pitcher should get updated between each start.
Will correcting this flaw actually improve performance? I’m not sure. I seemed to have the biggest impact on the elite pitchers that are already 25% of the way through strong seasons. Taking a big chunk out of their WARPs dramatically lowered the overall WARP of each team’s rotation. For that reason, I think this will make elite pitchers more attractive to the fund, and also make weak pitchers more exploitable.
Adjusting Bet Sizing
Another interesting fact that I stumbled on this week is that the Baseball Fund is far more profitable if you isolate the Level 1 bets. It has lost money in each bet category larger than the first level.
This could be a product of very small sample sizes that will balance out over the rest of the season. It could also be an early signal that the fund would be better off eliminating the scaled bet sizing and going to one standard position size for all bets.